Wednesday Tips

MLB

Milwaukee @ Cincinnati
Over 9 runs @ $1.90 for $60

Racing

Ballarat
R8#5 St Clement Danes $60 a win

Harness

Terang
R7#6 Jilliby Bartel $100 a win

Sunday Tips

Harness Racing

Hobart

R3#9 Hamish Sanz
R9#7 Denvers Boy
both $100 a win

R8#3 Harleken Wized
$20x30

Saturday Tips

Racing

Caulfield
R6#? Typhoon Tracy $100 @ $3.20

Harness Racing

Echuca
R7#7 That Is Correct $100 a win

Also got a couple of AFL multis over the weekend

Highest Scoring Team = Western Bulldogs
Lowest Scoring Team - West Coast Eagles

$30 @ $12.50

treble at the line
Collingwood - 11.5
Bulldogs - 28.5
Richmond - 8.5

$50 @ $6.93

Friday Tips

MLB

Florida Marlins v New York Mets
Under 7.5 runs for $60 @ 1.91 NOT EVEN CLOSE 11-4

NFL

St Louis Rams v New England Patriots
Over 38 pts @ $1.90 for $50 COVERED BY HALF TIME ALMOST 36-35

Indianapolis Colts v Green Bay Packers
Green Bay - 3.5 @ $1.90 for $50 WON BY 35 Packers 59 Colts 24

Racing

Geelong Synthetic
R1#9 Too Deadly $100 @ top fluc WON $1.55 top fluc

Harness Racing

Melton

R8#8 Art Shadow
$20x60

Invest for day $340

Also got a couple of AFL multis over the weekend

Highest Scoring Team = Western Bulldogs
Lowest Scoring Team - West Coast Eagles

$30 @ $12.50

treble at the line
Collingwood - 11.5
Bulldogs - 28.5
Richmond - 8.5

$50 @ $6.93

Harness Tips - WTF??

This is getting beyond a joke

Have tipped 7 harness horses on this blog so far and 3 have bolted in

The other 4 have done the following:

La Dainian - simply refused to even score up to the mobile and didn't take part
Savannah Way - galloped at start and again at the 500m mark
Cmon Harry - dislodged driver at the bell and see that thing happen once a year
Barooga Billy - galloped at bell back to last then flew home to run 4th

God help Sing And Dance in the last as on history will either bolt in or get knocked over by a low flying eagle!!

Monday Tips

Posting MLB game early as on just after midnight our time and both bets are in the same game. Watched Gomez pitch last start and had about 6 balls caught on the warning track and reckon they might get hold of him here. Also makes the overs a decent play as Verlander is prone to walking a few. Play them both individually instead of the double as should get one

Detroit Tigers - 1.5 @ $1.98
Detroit/Cleveland over 8 runs @ $1.94

Both bets for $70

Sunday Tips

Might start with a quick explanation about how I arrive at my MLB tips - not rocket science, I usually pick about 6-7 matches per day where I am familiar with the pitchers, etc and then do an assessment of what price I would be prepared to take prior to looking at any markets. Once I measure my odds/lines against what is available a few usually appear as value in my eyes and only bet in those games. Does annoy me sometimes when the 3-4 games I leave out of betting on get up but is the best way long term

This week, here are the matches and odds I selected

Texas - 1.5 @ $1.70
Braves v Cubs @ $1.75
Angels/Twins over 9.5
Indians/Tigers under 8
Cardinals v Giants @ $1.75
Mets/Pirates under 8
--------------------------------

of this lot, only 4 met the odds/line requirements and actual odds and bets are (the more leeway built in, the stronger the bet)

Texas - 1.5 @ $1.71 for $50
Angels/Twins over 9.5 @ $1.90 for $50
Indians/Tigers under 8.5 @ $1.90 for $60
Mets/Pirates under 8 @ $1.83 for $40

also take a little multi on any H2H match ups where the price doesn't qualify

2 leg multi
Atlanta Braves/St Louis Cardinals both H2H @ $2.67 v $20

Harness Racing

Launceston
R4#8 Harley Fella $30x50
R5#4 Barooga Billy $80 a win
R8#7 Sing And Dance $100 a win

Saturday Tips

After yesterdays debacle lets hope for a change of luck here. The only 2 sports bets that won both fell in and the one horse tip won by the length of the straight but only paid $1.70 mid tote despite being up to $2.60 available on fixed odds

MLB

Atlanta H2H $60 @ $1.70
Texas - 1.5 $60 @ $1.80

Also a 4 team multi - Philadelphia, Texas, Florida, Boston
$30 @ $4.67

Racing - Moonee Valley

R6#6 Morgan Dollar $40 a win

Harness Racing

Ballarat
R1#9 Savannah Way $60 a win

Newcastle
R6#9 Cmon Harry $100 a win

Globe Derby
R5#8 Bohemian Lombo $60 a win
R5 - quinella 6,8 x $40

Total invest for day = $450

Friday Tips and update

How bad are these bets going!! NFL Pre Season is a joke, might as well be playing tattslotto. Adding a bet on Cincinnati under 8 runs @ $1.83 for $80

Had to laugh at initial NFL bet under 33 pts game total and score was 21-14 at qtr time after mistakes galore. Texas getting smashed by the worst team in MLB so looks like one of those days plus my best bet at the trots has been scratched

MLB

9.05am Texas v Baltimore
$80 Texas - 1.5 @ $1.83

Good side Texas and like the pitching match up here as despite the Texas starter (Colby Lewis) going 0-4 in recent starts he has only an ERA of .276 in that period and its purely lack of run support that has cost him. Should get that here against the Orioles who start Brian Matusz (4-12, 5.28) who would prefer to forget his two starts against Texas this year. He's 0-1 with an 18.56 ERA in those outings, lasting a total of 5 1/3 innings

12.10pm Colorado v LA Dodgers
$50 LA Dodgers - 1.5 @ 2.44

Bit of a value play hence the smaller bet, Dodgers pitcher Ted Lilly has been exceptional in his 3 starts for LA since transferring from the Cubs and there is also a good chance that Colorado will be without their star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez who leads the team in Batting Average, RBIs, Hits and Home Runs so will be very hard to cover him if not playing. Despite LA being terrible at times when batting this year I am still prepared to have a bet on them here

NFL

9.30am Indianapolis v Buffalo
$30 under 33 pts @ $1.90

These 2 teams actually gave up the 2 highest scores against in week 1 of pre season play (42 and 37) yet I am going under 33??? Pretty simple, defence will be very high on the agenda after last week and as Indi only played Tuesday morning don't expect to see much at all of Peyton Manning and they are pretty bare on the QB front after him

10.00am New England v Atlanta
$30 over 37 pts @ $1.90 and
$30 Atlanta - 2.5 @ $1.91

My pick for the Superbowl Atlanta and had a decent bet on them to win over 9.5 games which is another story. Expect to see heaps more of star young QB Matt Ryan tonight after very limited game time last week which should get the scoreboard ticking over especially against a very inexperienced Pats defence (which also explains the bet on Falcons giving 2.5 start)

HARNESS TIPS

Melton

R4#9 Excel Stride $100 a win
R6#1 Courage To Rule $100 a win

Thursday Tips

MLB

4.15am St Louis v Milwaukee
$100 St Louis - 1.5 @ $1.83

Pretty confident with this bet, the Cardinals start Wainwright who has any amount of statistics to support the bet - leads MLB in ERA (1.99), is 17-6 over the season but in past 7 starts is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA and hasn't given up a run in 5 of those starts. He is also 9-0 with a 1.30 ERA in 10 daytime starts, seven of which have come at home. He's been virtually untouchable at home regardless of the time of day, going 11-0 with a 1.22 ERA.

And if that isn't enough, he has pitched twice against the Brewers this year for 2 complete game wins with a total of 3 hits and 1 run allowed over the 18 innings pitched.

Despite the Cardinals losing their past 3 (including 2 against the Brewers), I am confident their big name hitters will get the better of the pitching from the beermakers with this match up. Reckon 4 runs will be enough to cover actually and can see them scoring 7 or 8

Will also post a couple more later but threw this up early as on at 4.15am tomorrow

EDIT

The 2 others I was going to post were

Mets v Astros under 7 - was 2.04 now into 1.82 so leaving it alone. This was actually the first one I picked out but not taking the price now, wish I took it originally!!
Yankees v Tigers over 9.5 - also been backed and only going to be a half bet anyway so leaving alone also

Wednesday Tips

10.10am

Kansas City v Cleveland
$100 under 8 runs @ $1.84

Pretty confident that Greinke will handle the Indians batters here and with the Kansas offence really struggling of late that looks a good recipe to ensure this goes under the 8 run total

Be very surprised if Cleveland score more than 3 and with the Indians starting Gomez who has a 1.54 ERA in 4 career starts its a pretty good bet that he won't allow more than 5 runs (based on Cleveland scoring 3 runs or less)

Last 10 games run production
Kansas City 1,2,2,4,1,1,3,4,3,1 average of 2.2
Cleveland 2,7,2,4,8,1,4,2,3,9 average of 4.2

Game prediction - KC by around 4-1 or 4-2. Was thinking of playing them - 1.5 but simply don't score enough runs lately to justify that bet type so the unders looks a safer play

Charlton Harness

1.09pm R2#5 La Dainian $100 a win

Resumes from a spell for a new stable, has raced against better than these previously and whilst trials haven't been startling they have been good enough to beat these

Tuesday Tip

Here's hoping for better luck today, pretty average day for a bet to be honest but came up with one

12.10pm

Oakland v Toronto
$100 under 7 runs @ $1.94

Picked this out prior to markets being set and was hoping for the line to be set at 8 but 7 still isn't too bad given the match ups. The good thing about baseball is that there is always a statistic to throw out and these are the ones that make me confident

Total Runs - past 10 games
Oakland - 4,1,6,3,1,0,5,3,0,2 (25) average of 2.5
Toronto - 1,2,17,1,5,1,6,3,2,4 (42) average of 4.2 but does include a 17, ignoring that they have a 2.7 average in the other 9 games

Oakland are shocking in night games and Toronto really struggle with left handed pitching and both scenarios appear here.

Oakland 29-47 at night (28-12 in day games)
Toronto 9-15 v left handed pitchers (.216 v lefties, .259 v righties)

Toronto were red hot batting wise prior to the all star break but have cooled right off since and their stats prior to June compared to after are chalk and cheese.

Pretty confident the starters will keep things tight until it becomes time for the pens to strut their stuff. Can see the score being like 3-0 or 3-1 after 7 innings and would like my chances from there

Monday Bets

MLB

Tampa Bay Rays - 1.5
Bet = $100 @ $1.80

starts at 3.40am AEST

Philadelphia v New York Mets
Under 8.5 runs
Bet = $100 @ $1.95

Starts at 10.05am

NFL Pre Season

Denver @ Cincinnati
Under 33 pts
Bet $100 @ $1.90

Starts at 9am

Will normally try and have the following days bets posted by 9pm at the latest the evening prior but thought I would get things rolling and post a starting bet